2011 Mortgage Trends

2011 Mortgage Trends: Jumbo Loans, Cash Buys


The number of mortgage applications for home purchases is expected to become a bigger part of the mortgage market in 2011 as home prices stabilize, predicts the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinancing has mostly dominated in recent months as home owners looked to lock-in low interest rates, but experts predict refinancing to slow as new mortgage shoppers dominate.



Real estate analysts predict the other following trends in the mortgage market for 2011:



Rates on the rise. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts mortgage rates to rise slightly in 2011 and hover around 5 percent. They expect rates to increase to about 6 percent in 2012.



Jumbo loans become more attractive. Jumbo loans (loans over $417,000 in most housing markets and above $729,750 in high-cost housing markets) are expected to pick up pace in the next few months. Jumbo loans often have higher mortgage rates than conforming loans. However, with mortgage rates on jumbo loans dropping, experts predict a hike in refinancing and purchase applications for high-end housing.



All-cash purchases. All-cash purchases represented about a quarter of all existing home purchases in the last four months of 2010, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. He expects all-cash purchases to continue to represent a big part of the real estate landscape in 2011.



Slow and complex mortgage loan process. The time between application and closing can take as much as 60 days and that’s not expected to get any faster, experts say. Lenders often recommend borrowers lock in a loan 60, 75, or 90 days to help ensure the loan process will be completed within that lock-in period. The industry's new levels of documentation and verification that is now required is causing lengthy delays in the loan process, experts say.

Source: “7 Mortgage Trends to Expect in 2011,” MSNBC (Jan. 10, 2011)

Emily Lee

call/text 606-499-7836

Realty Group II

broker:423-869-5111



Housing Starts Expected to Climb in 2011

Housing Starts Expected to Climb in 2011


New home construction is looking up this year.



During an economic update Wednesday at the International Builders' Show in Orlando David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, projected single-family housing starts to rise by 21 percent in 2011, reaching 575,000 units.



The estimate is slightly more conservative than the Dec. 30 projection of 716,000 housing starts this year by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. Both estimates assume sustained job growth, increasing U.S. population, as well as continued low interest rates driving construction.



Yun expects about 2 million jobs to be added in 2011. However, as NAHB presenter Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, pointed out, 2011 got off to a slow start with nonfarm payrolls rising only by 103,000 in December. He called the figure weaker than expected.



Credit is another factor. Lending remains tight, but if it opens up with safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, Yun says there would be a bigger boost to the housing market with spillover benefits for the broader economy. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3 percent around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2 percent, according to NAR.



In addition, over the past 10 years the U.S. has added 27 million people. Continued population growth will also spur home construction and sales. “All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun says.



An even more conservative projection of 492,000 housing starts in 2011 was released by the Portland Cement Association during the International Builders Show Wednesday. Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist, does not expect significant increases until 2012 due to tight lending standards, a high home inventory count, and unstable housing prices. He also says that new home construction will vary considerably by region.



-- Erica Christoffer, REALTOR® Magazine

 

Emily Lee

call/text 606-499-7836

Realty Group II

Broker:423-869-5111

States with the highest foreclosure rates

Lenders Repossess 1 Million Homes in 2010


Banks repossessed more than 1 million homes in 2010 and this year is expected to get even worse, according to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure tracking resource. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgage payments, which industry analysts say will likely lead to lenders taking back even more homes this year as borrowers continue to struggle with job losses and dropping home values.



"2011 is going to be the peak," says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac Inc.

One in 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last year, a record high and a 1.67 percent increase from 2009.



Some states are harder hit than others. In Nevada alone, one in every 11 households received a foreclosure filing last year. The state had a 71 percent spike in bank repossessions in December.



Banks in recent months have mostly slowed their pace in evictions, following allegations that they were handled improperly. But Sharga says banks will resume repossessions and the first quarter will likely show a rebound in foreclosure activity.



The states with the highest foreclosure rates:



• Nevada



• Arizona



• Florida



• California



• Utah



• Georgia



• Michigan



• Idaho



• Illinois



• Colorado



Source: “Lenders Take Back 1 Million Homes Last Year Despite Slowdown in Foreclosures in December,” Associated Press (Jan. 13, 2011)

Emily Lee

call/text 606-499-7836

Realty Group II

Broker:423-869-5111